Spring is just about here and with it the cherry blossoms are blooming, but also baseball is back! That means it’s that time old tradition of making predictions again! We’ll start off with the three AL divisions and see how each of the 15 teams stack up against one another. So let’s jump right into it!
American League East
Baltimore Orioles
I promise this isn’t a homer pick for one main reason. I’m not in any way an Orioles fan (I support a different type of bird). That being said, there’s plenty of reasons to believe that last year’s stunning run to a division title can be duplicated. For one, the offensive core of this team is not only still intact, but will be expected to be better with another year under their belt. That’s not including the best overall prospect in baseball, Jackson Holliday, who should be called up sometime this summer. He’s not the only prospect to keep an eye on as the Orioles boast the best farm system in the league right now.
On the pitching side of things, Baltimore had a top 10 staff last season. That only figures to improve as they made a big splash and acquired Corbin Burnes from the Brewers. He’s the true ace that this team was looking for to make some noise come playoff time. If he can live up to the hype, Baltimore could very well find themselves in the World Series.
Toronto Blue Jays
I know most people would have the Rays here at number 2 in the division, but I’m giving the Blue Jays the slight edge this year. The Orioles are where the Blue Jays thought they would be when they started promoting players from their top farm system. While they have enjoyed a return to the playoffs, this team has yet to really taste the fruits of their labor. The clock is ticking for this team to go all in for a title before these young players get a quite bit more expensive.
Toronto will hope for a bit of a bounce from a middling lineup. Vladdy Jr is the centerpiece to this lineup and will look to keep up the boom. But he can’t do it alone, and so it will be on guys like Springer and Bichette to raise this lineup’s floor. The pitching staff on the other hand was arguably top 5 last year and was key to keeping this team in the hunt last season. A disappointing end in the playoffs last season should motivate this group into another solid season of production.
Tampa Bay Rays
It would not shock me one bit if the Rays ended the season higher on this list. This is an organization that has consistently punched above their weight. Expect more of the same this year as they will definitely be in the mix for the division title this season. The offense last season ranked in the top 5 in the run-producing categories. That likely won’t happen this season due to Wander Franco’s off-the-field issues. It is highly unlikely that Franco sees the field this season and thus the onus will be put on others to pick up the slack. Luckily for Tampa fans, no team does that better than the Rays.
On the pitching side of things, look for more of the same…which is to say, expect solid production from all facets of this unit. You will be hard pressed to find an organization that has been consistently better than the Rays at pitching these past few years. This team won’t overpower you with name power, but underestimate this team at your own peril.
New York Yankees
I’ll admit that it does feel like we’re in the twilight zone. Growing up, the AL East generally came down to the Yankees or the Red Sox. Yet here we are in 2024 with both teams projected to be at the bottom of the division. While the three teams above them have earned their position, the bottom two share just as much of the blame. Juan Soto will indeed boost this aging lineup after being traded from the Padres. But this is still a fairly old lineup with a lot of holes and injury prone players. The key for this team is health, more health, and some injury luck from the baseball gods.
The Yankees pitching staff leaves a lot to be desired. Only six teams had fewer quality starts from their pitchers than the Yankees last season. On the bright side, one of those six teams was the Red Sox, so eat your hearts out New York. That being said, there needs to be a serious increase of production from this staff if the Yankees want to get back to competing. Oh, and back to Soto — he becomes a free agent after this season. The pressure is on in New York.
Boston Red Sox
2018 was the last time the Red Sox won the division, and the World Series. Since then they’ve made the playoffs once (2021). Unlike their bitter rival Yankees, the reason for their downfall isn’t expensive contracts to aging players. It’s actually quite the opposite ailment. The owners have become extremely cheap, much to the dismay of their fanbase. Despite finishing dead last in the division the last two seasons, the offense has been pretty solid. Of course they could be much better if ownership hadn’t decided to ship generational talent Mookie Betts to the Dodgers.
That being said, the front office is hoping a new generation of talent can lead this team back to the top. Casas and Rafaela will shoulder most of the hope as the reinforcements slowly start to trickle in from the minors. While the hitting has shown promise and will likely continue to produce, the same can’t be said from the Boston pitchers. This group has been a “bottom five” unit for the majority of the past 4 years. The franchise was supposed to be led by Chris Sale, but injuries ruined any chance of that. The franchise decided to give up on Sale and shipped him to Atlanta. The issues don’t look like they’re being solved anytime soon, as the farm system is pretty bare on the pitching side.
American League Central
Cleveland Guardians
To say last season was a disappointment would be an understatement. This team was poised to be the class of the division and instead fell flat. Any sort of bounce back in arguably the weakest division should see this team rise back to the cream of the crop. Jose Ramirez will once again be looked at to anchor a pretty underwhelming offense. While everyone else has searched for power to fill out their lineups, the Guardians have looked for contact. While they won’t hit many home runs, this team won’t strikeout much. They love to put the ball in play and let their speed be the weapon of choice.
It’s a refreshing change of pace instead of the usual “home run or bust” approach others use. The pitching staff projects to be among the top half of the league once again. Of course it helps to have a stellar defense behind them, but these guys are just as solid. Emmanuel Clase is one of the league’s elite closers and will be relied upon to shut down opponents regularly again.
Detroit Tigers
Will this year be the year that the Tigers finally experience playoff baseball again? 2014 was the last time this franchise was in the playoffs and they’ve only experienced one winning season since then. Management has taken some swings over the past two off seasons to finally get over that hump and back into the playoffs. Perhaps the biggest swing, and miss so far, was the signing of Javier Baez. He certainly hasn’t lived up to his contract yet, but all it takes is one season to change the minds of the hometown faithful. Elsewhere in the lineup the Tigers will be hoping for big seasons from young players Torkelson, Greene and Keith.
Getting two out of three will be the goal for this season. The Tigers have added some veteran pitching to their ailing young staff. That being said, their hopes still rest on how well Skubal and Mize perform this season. Skubal has already shown himself to be a potential Cy Young winner in the future. Mize needs to fight off the injury bug if he hopes to join his teammate in that regard. In the dream scenario those two form a deadly duo at the top of the rotation as the Tigers claim the AL Central as their own.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins were the team that benefited most from the Guardians slip up last season. Despite winning the division last season, I still see them as the third best team in this division. As mentioned above, I expect both teams ahead of Minnesota to take steps forward. Correa will be the big bat in this lineup, but don’t sleep on his supporting cast. A healthy Buxton and Kirilloff duo will give opposing pitchers trouble. Matt Wallner is my breakout candidate for this team, as he gets his first taste of the big leagues.
The rest of the lineup leaves much to be desired, but in this weak division it was enough last season. A large part of the Twins emergence as the class of the Central was due to their starting pitching. Nobody in baseball had more quality starts than the Twins. A regression back to the mean is the reason I have them slotting down in the third place position. That being said, if the Twins could capture about 85-90% of that production this season, they will certainly be in the hunt again.
Kansas City Royals
Much like the Tigers, the Royals are suffering from a bit of a playoff drought. Unlike the Tigers, the Royals can at least claim to have a World Series title in the last decade. After winning it all in 2015, they haven’t had a winning season let alone sniffing the playoffs. This season will be more of the same. Quite frankly, this team isn’t ready to compete even in the weakest division in baseball. Salvador Perez will serve as the clubhouse leader and veteran voice.
But everyone will be coming to see the new hope of the franchise Bobby Witt Jr. Already a star and household name Witt will be eager to put his name in lights on a grander stage. For that to happen the players around him will need to step up their production. That includes the pitchers as they finished dead last in quality starts last season. Too often Kansas City fell behind too far early in games for their offense to bail them out. While I expect some improvements, it won’t be enough to end the playoff drought.
Chicago White Sox
Perhaps no team in baseball has been a bigger disappointment over the last few years than the White Sox. Much like the Orioles now and the Blue Jays a few years ago, the White Sox had a strong farm system and a promising future. Fast forward to this year and all that promise has borne nothing but disappointment. Yes the franchise has made it to two playoff appearances with this roster. But both appearances were one and done disappointments. Injuries to key players like Moncada, Jimenez and Robert have robbed the team of consistency. Then there was last year, which was a complete and utter letdown.
Stay away from anyone still believing in this core to turn things around. The team had one of the worst ERAs in the league last year and that doesn’t seem to
be getting fixed soon. I fully expect the White Sox to try a bunch of different options this season as they try to figure out who they can rely on moving forward. For White Sox fans, the trade deadline should be the most exciting part of the season.
American League West
Texas Rangers
The defending champions will get the nod to win the division despite not actually claiming the West since 2016. They capitulated late last season to fumble the division title away, but this season should be different. One reason is that they managed to rebound when it mattered most and send the hated Astros home. Another reason is that everyone is still here to run it back. Evan Carter was a late season and postseason sensation. While he will come back to earth, he still will give this lineup a boost. First round pick Langford is a serious rookie of the year candidate. Then you have Seager, Semien, Jung and Garcia in the lineup as
well.
This is indeed a scary lineup. The fact that this team won the World Series despite Max Scherzer and Jacob DeGrom both being out shows how deep this staff is. Neither pitcher will be healthy to start the season, but their imminent return will give this team a huge boost for the long run. Look for the Rangers to once again be among the favorites in the AL.
Houston Astros
Six out of the last seven years the Astros have reigned supreme out west. This year should be the season that the changing of the guard begins. That being said, this franchise is still pretty dangerous. The evidence is in their postseason form with seven, YES SEVEN, straight ALCS appearances. Will this be the season the streak ends? As long as this team has Bregman, Yordan and Tucker in the lineup they will remain a force to be reckoned with. The middle infield duo of Altuve and Pena adds to an already potent lineup.
The Astros went out and signed Josh Hader to give them arguably the best backend bullpen in the league. Closing out games was definitely an issue for this team last season, and they are hoping Hader solves that. Elsewhere, the starting rotation looks to be solid. Keep an eye out for a breakout season from Hunter Brown.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners ended the longest active playoff drought in 2022. Unfortunately, that success didn’t carry over to last season as Seattle missed the playoffs. They were on track to make it two straight playoff appearances before fading heavily down the stretch. A more consistent Mariners team could challenge the Astros for the second place spot. This lineup isn’t stacked like some of the other teams that we’ve mentioned before, but there’s still a lot to like. Rodriguez is the jewel of this lineup, but he’s not alone. Raleigh, France and Crawford can make some noise as well. Seattle also brought back Haniger after being gone for a season.
The lineup is fearsome, but it’s nothing compared to how well the pitching staff performed last season. Luis Castillo is the ace, but George Kirby has a strong chance to win the CY Young award this season. Gilbert and Miller provide a strong 3 and 4 punch. If this staff pitches as well as everyone in Seattle believes they can, then this team could be a dark horse come playoff time.
Oakland A’s
Much of the headlines surrounding this team will be about their upcoming move to Vegas. The roster doesn’t come with much excitement as the A’s start to take their final bow in Oakland. This will be another forgettable season for the league’s lowest payroll. On the bright side, I have them finishing above the Angels. The offense is pretty barren and won’t scare even rookie pitchers. The A’s aren’t focusing on winning and would rather focus on developing some of their younger hitters.
Zack Gelof looks to be the real deal and could be someone to build around moving forward. If they can see a similar jump from one or two other prospects, the A’s will consider this season a success. The less said about the A’s pitching staff the better. What I will say is that the A’s will use the same strategy that’s being applied to their hitters. Let the kids play and see who can take that leap.
Los Angeles Angels
I do not envy anyone who has chosen to make the Angels their favorite team. Not only did they lose Ohtani to their crosstown rivals, but they did so without getting any much-needed elite prospects to add to a dry farm system. The organization has not tasted postseason baseball since 2014 and yet has the league’s worst farm system. Trout is still with the Angels, but will be desperate for some form of help. Rendon was supposed to be the answer, but injuries have made his Angels tenure a nightmare. The same story applies to Pujols who was rarely healthy when he was with the team. Schanuel is their most promising hitter and could be the answer they are looking for.
The pitching staff gave up runs at an alarming rate last season. Expect that to continue, as the Angels haven’t particularly addressed their woeful staff. The farm system doesn’t seem the place to look for solutions since there is no one near ready to jump up to the big leagues. Get comfortable Angel fans, this should be your reality for the foreseeable future.
Article featured photo by Lesly Juarez on Unsplash.